Balancing Environmental Conservation and Economic Development in Mountain Regions: An MCDM Analysis of Türkiye’s Eastern Black Sea

Mountainous regions often face geographical constraints, limited economic diversity, infrastructure deficiencies, and unequal access to markets and public services. In this context, policies aimed at promoting regional development are crucial. Türkiye's Eastern Black Sea region is well-suited for examining such a challenge. This study assumes that alternative regional development pathways can produce significantly different economic benefits and environmental costs. The aim of the study is to find the best sustainable development path using Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques. Four alternative pathways are considered: conventional growth-oriented development, green economic transformation, nature-based regional development, and integrated climate-resilient development. Their performance was tested against twelve criteria grouped into four dimensions: economic and regional development, biodiversity and natural capital, climate and environmental sustainability, and landscape, cultural and social sustainability. The Logarithmic Additive Weighting Coefficient Estimation (LAAW) method was used to evaluate the criteria. The four sustainable development pathways identified using weighted criteria were ranked using the Q-rung Orthopair Fuzzy Set (q-ROFS)-based Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) method. To test the validity and structural stability of the proposed decision support system, the findings were comparatively analyzed using q-ROFS-based Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) methods. The results were obtained as A4>A3>A2>A1. Integrated Climate-Resilient Development was determined to be the most effective sustainable development strategy for Türkiye